Tony nominations aren’t going to be announced until May, but there is already some talk as to which musicals might be nominated. Assuming they both get nominated, I personally think who wins is going to come down to one of two: American Idiot or Memphis. While American Idiot is only in previews now, it already has a lot of interest from the general public. On the other hand, Memphis not only has quite a following already, it is also a superb show with very strong elements to it. I cannot tell you which I think deserves the win until I see American Idiot for myself. I know the album it is based off of is one of my favorites by Green Day (or the rock genre for that matter) and that it has the potential to be something special. Whether that potential translates on stage and connects with audiences is yet to be determined.